OK, so it’s not the election just yet, but there are some indicators showing that President Obama will be elected for a second term.

The competition

The two key challengers are currently Mitt Romney and Ron Paul. Romney looks like the potential candidate for the Republican Party, with an emphasis on cutting taxes, reducing government spending and getting America back on a solid economic footing. Ron Paul is also in favour of cutting taxes and spending, but also plans to restore the healthcare system.

If Romney does go forward as the Republican Party candidate, Obama will win.

We have conducted an independent survey in Florida, Illinois, Ohio and Texas to understand what the average American thinks of the potential candidates. The results would forecast a result as follows:

Why Florida, Illinois, Ohio and Texas? They are sufficiently large to sway the election, and results from these states have predicted 12 of the last 12 Presidents.

Romney wins Texas but Obama takes all other states to win the second term.

Why did Obama win? Or should the question be: why did Romney lose?

In order to assess the appeal of the main contenders, we introduced a number of other candidates. As well as participants’ views on Obama and Romney, we also introduced the public to Santorum, Paul, Clinton, Biden and non-frontliners such as Warren Buffett, Donald Trump, Sarah Palin and Michelle Bachmann.

We presented a summary of each candidate’s key messages and asked members of the public if they would vote for that candidate. We then introduced a ‘March Madness’ or ‘Champions League’ phase, in which candidates went head to head until an eventual winner was determined.

The benefit we gain from this is the collective market trend versus a focus on one candidate.

So why did Romney lose?

Romney loses out because his message of tax cuts and a reduction in government spending works well with supporters of the Republican Party but is not heeded by everyone else. The current pulse among Americans is a move to get the country’s economy back on track, while they’re broadly in favour of the healthcare system outlined by President Obama. If Romney can’t change his message, the election is already lost.

Will any other Republican be a better candidate?

Potentially.

With Ron Paul’s stance on fixing the healthcare system and his credibility of having worked in the field, he may have more chance against Obama. Our data suggests a better performance from Paul – reducing the gap in Florida, Illinois and Ohio – but ultimately a victory for Obama nonetheless:

Although we are predicting an Obama win, there is still work to be done to refine the message. ‘Austerity’ is a word often used by Obama, but our data shows that a large proportion of the public is unsure of its meaning. Clarity and clarification on this term will help to strengthen his overall message.

For further details of the survey and data, contact Richie Heron at Richie.Heron@thevalueeengineers.com or by phone on +44 (0)1494 680999.

Coming soon:  Who’s the ideal candidate for President?

With 30 second spots being sold for the best part of $3 million, its no wonder Superbowl adverts come under such scrutiny. As over 100 million Americans tuned in to the NFL season’s climax over the weekend, they were treated to the usual smorgasboard of big name, big budget commercials. Below are some of the highlights from the biggest date in the advertising calendar….

1)  Volkswagen, ‘The Force’

The Ad of Superbowl 2011 according to popular consensus, and you can understand why. Oozing cuteness, a teenybopper dressed as Darth Vader attempts to use The Force on a variety of household objects (dog included), but to no avail. Lightly tugging at heart strings, the ad nicely attaches a warm family feel to what is a decidedly uninteresting Volkswagen Pasat.

2)  Motorola, ‘Empower the People’

In 1984, Apple stole the Superbowl show with their now famous advert reimagining Orwell’s 1984. It portrayed the launch of Macintosh as an act of revolution against a tyrannical Big Brother figure determined to retain monopolised power (rather unsubtly symbolising Microsoft’s technological dominance at the time). Last weekend, in Motorola’s knowing recreation of 1984, Apple was Big Brother, ruling the Tablet world . A dry and apt dig at Apple’s dominance - notice the iPod look-a-like headphones blocking the masses from the real world - this ad hits the mark.

3) Chevrolet, ‘Miss Evelyn’

Watching this year’s Superbowl, you’d never have guessed the pains America’s car industry has endured over the last few years. Car adverts dominated the screens, with close to ten separate brands paying top dollar for primetime slots. Yet, as is so often the case with commercials from this industry, a combination of trite “humorous” narratives and generic closeups of bodywork saw most ads fail to inspire. This offering from Chevrolet, however, was a welcome post-modern prick to the car advertising’s overinflated pomposity, tongue firmly in cheek.

It wasn’t all rosy. Here are a couple that failed to sparkle…

• Coca-Cola’s fantastical animation must have cost a fortune, but didn’t really contain that spark to embody their ‘open happiness’ tagline
• GroupOn’s faux-charitable adverts already seem misjudged given the critical reaction from some quarters
• Best Buy’s inclusion of Justin Bieber and Ozzy Osbourne has caused a bit of a stir, but to me seems just a lazy use of celebrities with no obvious brand fit.

As already trailed through the appearance of the Empire State building on our website, we are delighted to announce the launch of The Value Engineers North America, which is possibly our most exciting news since the company was founded twenty five years ago in 1986! 

To celebrate this great moment, we held an open house at our offices in Manhattan with the great and good of marketing and a sparkly snowman all dropping by.  Thanks to all those dear friends of The Value Engineers who came to raise a glass to our new venture.  For those who could not make it here are a few snaps of the night.

With the mid-term elections rapidly approaching, America is abuzz with political chatter. As the 24-hour news channels continue their never ending search for content, I thought I’d share the most recent item to have made a media splash: The Tea Party Coloring Book for Kids….

Taking America’s newest conservative political force as its focus, the book “teaches children (and parents) about the origins of the Tea Party” according to the producer’s website. It promises ”hours of coloring fun with games, puzzles, mazes and connect the dots”, not to mention having a writing surface perfect for “crayons, colored pencils, magic markers and even water colors on!”

The one question in everybody’s mind: is this for real?! Is this a genuine attempt by the Tea Party to do what almost every brand in the country aspires to, and catch its target when they’re young? Some of the book’s statements – “when taxes are too high, the high tax takes away jobs and freedom” – would certainly seem to be set on creating a set of mini-Tea Party brand advocates. Then again, the producer insists there is no party backing, citing the ‘President Obama Activity and Work Book‘ also on sale as evidence of their political impartiality.

While the book’s origins remain mysterious, there’s little doubt as to its commercial success. By all accounts they’re selling like absolute hot cakes. So hurry soon, while stocks last! And if the above hasn’t convinced you to order one in, here’s the killer sell: the book is travel size, perfect for colouring (or coloring) “on a plane, train or in an automobile”.

“A kiss off the eight, a bank off the six. Double bull in a single throw, three pints in. Picking up a spare on the final frame….these are the providence of the after hours athletes”.

Puma’s latest ad, a eulogy to unofficial social gaming, oozes chic cool. “When last call calls”, a gruff crackling monologue states, “don’t answer”. It projects a potent mix of attractive 20-somethings, casual competition and alcohol, stitched together with some great shots and a soaring string rift, to portray an alluring utopia to the viewer. After watching it I certainly wanted to buy more Puma (….and take up ping-pong).

This isn’t exactly new territory for America’s major sportswear brands. In many ways Puma is following in the footsteps of Adidas, whose Originals range is positioned to very much play in the same area. Adidas’ the street where originality lives  showed a similar group of free-spirited youths getting up to urban japes. The latest version of that advert - a twist on the famous Star Wars bar scene released around the World Cup – explores much the same theme.

But for me, Puma has trumped Adidas here. The Originals range communication has always appeared a little muddled. Why is Snoop Dogg used? Beckham’s appearance is more understandable, bringing a link to the sporting world that Adidas sits in. Is the idea to infuse the ads with celebrity cool? In which case does this not jar with the understated nonchalence of Originals?

Puma Social, on the other hand, has firmly linked itself with the resent resurgence in popularity of quasi-sports in America – pool, ten-pin bowling, ping-pong, pin ball – many of which already have established cult status (Big Lebowski’s The Dude springs to mind). Above all, the brand fit just works: Foosball feels a far more comfortable association for a sports brand than Star Wars.

As the Puma advert states: “The night too is a for sport. And they are the Champions”.