OK, so it’s not the election just yet, but there are some indicators showing that President Obama will be elected for a second term.
The two key challengers are currently Mitt Romney and Ron Paul. Romney looks like the potential candidate for the Republican Party, with an emphasis on cutting taxes, reducing government spending and getting America back on a solid economic footing. Ron Paul is also in favour of cutting taxes and spending, but also plans to restore the healthcare system.
If Romney does go forward as the Republican Party candidate, Obama will win.
We have conducted an independent survey in Florida, Illinois, Ohio and Texas to understand what the average American thinks of the potential candidates. The results would forecast a result as follows:
Why Florida, Illinois, Ohio and Texas? They are sufficiently large to sway the election, and results from these states have predicted 12 of the last 12 Presidents.
Romney wins Texas but Obama takes all other states to win the second term.
Why did Obama win? Or should the question be: why did Romney lose?
In order to assess the appeal of the main contenders, we introduced a number of other candidates. As well as participants’ views on Obama and Romney, we also introduced the public to Santorum, Paul, Clinton, Biden and non-frontliners such as Warren Buffett, Donald Trump, Sarah Palin and Michelle Bachmann.
We presented a summary of each candidate’s key messages and asked members of the public if they would vote for that candidate. We then introduced a ‘March Madness’ or ‘Champions League’ phase, in which candidates went head to head until an eventual winner was determined.
The benefit we gain from this is the collective market trend versus a focus on one candidate.
So why did Romney lose?
Romney loses out because his message of tax cuts and a reduction in government spending works well with supporters of the Republican Party but is not heeded by everyone else. The current pulse among Americans is a move to get the country’s economy back on track, while they’re broadly in favour of the healthcare system outlined by President Obama. If Romney can’t change his message, the election is already lost.
Will any other Republican be a better candidate?
With Ron Paul’s stance on fixing the healthcare system and his credibility of having worked in the field, he may have more chance against Obama. Our data suggests a better performance from Paul – reducing the gap in Florida, Illinois and Ohio – but ultimately a victory for Obama nonetheless:
Although we are predicting an Obama win, there is still work to be done to refine the message. ‘Austerity’ is a word often used by Obama, but our data shows that a large proportion of the public is unsure of its meaning. Clarity and clarification on this term will help to strengthen his overall message.
For further details of the survey and data, contact Richie Heron at Richie.Heron@thevalueeengineers.com or by phone on +44 (0)1494 680999.
Coming soon: Who’s the ideal candidate for President?