If all the corks from all the wine made in a year in France were laid end to end they would go round the world 3 times.

I began my working career at DDB and was lucky enough to be put on the Volkswagen account, talk about good fortune.

Unfortunately I never got to work with Bob Levenson directly, but perhaps I got to work with him indirectly as his imprint could be felt on a lot of the work that was done.

So like so many others I was sad to hear that he had passed away recently and like them want to pay my respects.

His advertising legacy is immense and it’s difficult to pick a favourite but if I had to, it would have to be he classic Snowplough ad. I know it’s a TV commercial but as John Hegarty once quipped “That’s a print ad, not a TV-commercial.”

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cUnEbNgHFco

The Baltimore Ravens and the San Francisco 49ers may be fighting it out to win the Super Bowl on Sunday but that is not the only battle that will be waged. The parallel battle for consumer recognition of brands will be mirrored by the battle for peer respect of a ‘hit’ TV ad. (http://www.superbowl-commercials.org/14261.html).

The Super Bowl is a one-off event that guarantees a large, global audience for brands that can afford the advertising time.

But outside this large scale TV-centric event, and over the longer term, consumer attention is a lot more fragmented. There are a lot more channels than there used to be, most of them digital including Facebook, Twitter, more TV channels, digital outdoor… all vying for attention.

Brands now have to communicate across as many channels as they can budget for in order to get their message across. Resource and brand momentum mean that it’s easier for the large brands to to get their message across using multiple consumer touchpoints than it is for smaller brands who have to work cleverer instead.

The knock-on effect means the death of large scale advertising campaigns from smaller brands. In American Football terms – they are less likely to attempt to throw a risky 50 yard touchdown pass.

This campaign for Castlemaine XXXX ran in 1996 – one message, multiple versions across a finite number of media channels.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?NR=1&v=TbmYen7n5Uc&feature=endscreen

Same outlook, same message.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YrUkEk-wQuE

And again.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y-dMEQUHiJk

And again.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xNe1mOVog4A

Today, a similar campaign by a small brand like Castlemaine is unlikely to happen because absolute resources won’t permit it, because channel portfolios can offer optimised marcomms effectiveness and because smaller brands inherently get less bang for their buck!

In American Football terms, instead of the 50 yard touchdown, smaller brands now have to move the chains inch-by-inch, slowly establish field position then determine if they can attempt a touchdown or take the easier field goal before starting the process again from a position of greater strength.

“…  Inch by inch play by play till we’re finished… You find out that life is just a game of inches. So is football. Because in either game life or football the margin for error is so small. I mean one half step too late or to early you don’t quite make it. One half second too slow or too fast and you don’t quite catch it. The inches we need are everywhere around us. They are in ever break of the game every minute, every second. On this team, we fight for that inch.”

Tony D’Amato, Any Given Sunday.

92% of all smartphones currently sold run on either Google’s Android or Apple’s iOS systems. In order to change this, a revolutionary and cataclysmic event would need to take place. A breakthrough device/concept/business model would need to shake the foundations of the smartphone market to the core. In light of this, the launch by BlackBerry’s of Z10 and Q10 phones and the new operating system BB10 does not even register on the Richter scale.

Just ask Microsoft and Nokia how difficult it is to tap the general public on the shoulder and make it stand-up and notice something beyond the two dominant ecosystems. Despite both doing their utmost to get back into the game with a relatively well-received Lumia brand of smartphones, they are finding it very hard to break through to the mainstream. The reason: people are extremely happy with what they’ve been getting for years now from Apple, Google and their pack. In reality, there are only so many consumers who want to be different for the sake of it. The vast majority would need to be offered new and exciting benefits to persuade them to ditch their longstanding habits.

So, can BlackBerry succeed in the battle of the main ecosystems on the back of today’s announcement? The answer is a definite no. Can they succeed in a relatively lucrative niche? Here the answer is, quite possibly yes, but with a caveat.

In all our brand research across markets, BlackBerry is seen as a struggling brand with split personality. On the one hand, it attracts the security and standardization-conscious enterprise customers. On the other, it appeals to young people who love BBM (instant messaging system). It wouldn’t be a bad idea for BlackBerry to look positively on this dichotomy. In a scenario where all they can credibly achieve is to master a niche (or two) in this incredibly saturated and competitive market, there are options open for them to make the most of it. The key here is the intersection of audiences, including consumer segments, geographies and brand positioning.

The reality is that smartphones have moved from a novelty to norm. Since the launch of the original iPhone in 2007 the market has matured and, in many countries, has reached a point of saturation.

The mainstream threat to the big players will most likely come from within the Android ecosystem at the bottom of the price pyramid. Brands without the clout and recognition of Apple or Samsung will be mainly forced to compete on price and sometimes on niche benefits. Players such as Huawei, ZTE might just gain a decent foothold in the global market, if they play their cards well. Nokia and Microsoft have a fighting chance of making themselves into one of big three, albeit in the mid to long-term, if they are very persistent.

And BlackBerry? Judging by the reaction of the markets – a 6% drop in share price after the new re-launch – they’ve got their work cut out.

The average person uses 13 different methods to control and manage their time.